BIP-110 uses a modified user-activated soft fork mechanism requiring 55% miner signaling rather than the traditional 95% threshold. Even at that significantly lower bar, it cannot reach lock-in without a major pool, and no major pool including Foundry USA, Antpool, ViaBTC, or F2Pool has signaled support. Ocean pool, run by Bitcoin Core developer Luke Dashjr, has produced the handful of historical signaling blocks. Nothing in the current data suggests any reversal before the deadline.
If BIP-110 activates with near-zero miner support, nodes running BIP-110 software, primarily Bitcoin Knots variants, begin rejecting blocks that do not signal support and follow a slower minority chain. The main Bitcoin chain, carrying nearly all of the network’s hashrate and running Bitcoin Core, continues unchanged. Exchange and custodian operations on the main chain are unaffected. BIP-110 in its current state appears set to produce a small, isolated minority chain rather than any network-wide change.